Brexit: possible scenarios and my personal analysis

The Brexit is a referendum where the United Kingdom voted to exit the European Union as they considered that the benefits of belonging to the Union no longer counterbalanced the costs of free movement of immigration. It happened on June 23, 2016.

Before talking about the consequences, it’s important to understand the causes that led to this drastic decision. In 2016 the former Prime Minister David Cameron called for the referendum in order to silence the pro-Brexit groups. However, the situation didn’t work out as planned and the anti-immigrant and anti-EU currents won. The pro-Brexit groups are formed by old working-class members that live in the countryside and are afraid of immigrants’ recent waves. On the other side younger voters, London citizens, Scotland citizens and Northern Ireland citizens choose to stay in the EU.

Possible scenarios:

From the original referendum derive three possible scenarios:

1)    Theresa May (current Prime Minister)’s Deal: it implies the United Kingdom to remain in the EU within a “customs union” for an unspecified period. In this way, none of both sides would impose tariffs on each other’s imports. Besides the 3 million European people living in the UK could continue working without the need of work visas. On the other hand, the 1.3 million UK citizens living in the EU could continue to do the same.

The UK would also hold to the European Court of Judgment and EU laws; however, they wouldn’t have the possibility to vote on the laws anymore.

Finally, the customs union would prevent the UK from setting a militarized border between Northern and Southern Ireland.

2)    No Deal Brexit: this is the most likely scenario and probably the worst. In this case, the UK would no longer be a part of the EU and it wouldn’t have a trade agreement. Food shortages could be created due to the imposed tariffs: we need to take into consideration that one-third of UK food is imported from the EU. This import taxes could also open the doors to inflation.

3)    Hard Brexit: it would determine no trade agreement which would hurt exporters. Many jobs would be lost. Housing prices would start to fall. A huge loss in services couldn’t be avoided, especially in banking. And finally, practitioners wouldn’t be able anymore to operate in all member countries.

Finally, a militarized border would be established between Northern Ireland, which would remain as a member of the UK, and Southern Ireland, which is an independent country and a member of the EU.

My personal analysis:

Now that we’ve analyzed the landscape of the United Kingdom, we must shift to the consequences that the EU would suffer. The only major negative aspect for the Union would be the inevitable encouragement that pro-independence parties all over the continent would acquire from the Brexit. In fact, we could be witnesses in some years of the departures of some great countries from the EU, such as France and Germany.

I have always considered that the EU will take advantage of Brexit if it is applied. In fact, previously the Union wasn’t able to follow any concrete courses due to United Kingdom’s objections; that changes now. 

Some people claim that the UK has always been the cancer of the Union: it would be enough to take into consideration the huge amount of money that has been loaned to the island. Thanks to the referendum, they will be forced to pay a 50.7 billion euro “divorce bill” which will benefit the continent’s economy.

If we deeply analyze the situation in the Kingdom the Brexit consists in more disadvantages than advantages. Do you know that more than 1 million UK citizens are currently living among Spain, Italy and other coastal European countries because of their warmer weather and free healthcare? If they are stripped off from their European community passport they won’t be able to enjoy these benefits anymore. Click for further reading about scenarios’ consequences.

Only time will tell what will be Brexit’s outcome. At the moment, we can only sit and watch.